For the 19th time in the past 20 months, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below the 50.0 growth reading in April, according to the recently-released monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

The region’s overall reading for April fell to 40.0 from March’s 41.1. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“The economic outlook for 2025 farm income remains weak, according to bank CEOs. Despite the negative fallout from tariffs, 75% of bankers support the tariffs on China, and 79.2% back the 90-day pause on other tariffs,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. The monthly economic survey was launched in January, 2006 by Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America.

Approximately 20.8% of bank CEOs recommend that the federal government fully offset farmer losses from tariff impositions, while 21.1% argue for no increase in federal support. 

“We are in unknown territory with the administration. Our trade relations with Canada and Mexico were put together over many years for the benefit of the three countries. That has now been torn apart,” says Jeffrey Gerhart, former Chairman of the Bank of Newman Grove in Newman Grove, Neb.

“Farmers in our area are ready to plant, but much-needed rain has held them up. Most are not too concerned so far, as it is early in the season,” reported Jim Eckert, Executive Vice President and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill.  

Regarding farming and ranching land prices, the April report showed that for the 11th time in the past 12 months, farmland prices slumped below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price index increased to 41.7 from 38.9 in March. “Elevated interest rates, higher input costs and volatility from tariffs have put downward pressure on ag land prices,” said Goss. 

According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA) noted in the Report summary issued April 17, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $2.4 billion in 2024 to $1.8 billion in 2025, for a decline of 23.8%. Mexico began 2025 as the top destination for ag exports, accounting for 48.1% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports. 

The report also identified impacts of the Index in key areas, including farm equipment sales, banking, hiring and banker sentiment.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index dropped to a very weak 17.4 from 20.8 in March. “This is the 20th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions and market volatility from tariffs are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss. 

Banking:  The April loan volume index declined to 70.8 from March’s 77.8. The checking deposit index improved to 58.7 from 50.0 in March. The index for certificates of deposits (CDs) and other savings instruments rose to 58.3 from 55.6 in March. Federal Reserve interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 29 straight months.

Hiring:  The new hiring index for April plummeted to 43.8 from March’s 53.7. Recent job gains for non-farm employers weakened for the month. 

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The April confidence index increased to a weak 36.0 from March’s 30.4. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, pushed banker confidence lower,” said Goss. 

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