While Creighton University’s overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) rose to its highest level since July 2023, at the same time, the survey showed that for the 13th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral.

Additional highlights of the June 2025 survey results included:

• Bank CEOs expect 1 in 4 farmers in their area to experience negative 2025 income.
• Bankers reported very low farm loan delinquency rates over the past six months. 
• Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 22nd straight month.
• Regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $4.5 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025 for a decline of 18.5%.    

According to a June 20 news release issued from the Omaha, Neb.-based university, for the 20th time in the past 21 months, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below the 50.0 growth neutral reading in May, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

A snapshot summary of survey findings issued by the researchers included the following:

Overall: The region’s overall reading for June rose to 51.9 from May’s 44.0. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“This is only the third time in two years that the overall index has moved above growth neutral. Despite the significant increase for the month, on average, bankers expect approximately 1 in 4 farmers to experience negative income for farmers in their area,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics and Professor at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. Dr. Goss also serves as the director of the Institute for Economic Inquiry. He is also director of The Goss Institute for Economic Research in Denver, Colo.

Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next 6 months. The June confidence index increased to a frail 37.0 from May’s 30.0. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, pushed banker confidence lower,” said Goss. 

On average, bankers project that 24.7% of farmers will experience negative income for 2025.  “Despite weak farm income for 2023, 2024 and now 2025, bankers reported that farm loan delinquency rates have risen by only 1.1% over the past six months,” said Goss. 

Regarding the Federal Reserve’s recent short-term interest rate decision, the news release announcing the findings reported that 3 out of 4 bank CEOs agreed with the Fed’s decision to maintain the current rate. Approximately 22.2% recommended a 0.25% (25 basis points) rate cut, while the remaining 3.7% argued for a 0.25% rate increase.   

Farming and ranching land prices: For the 13th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices slumped below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price increased slightly to a weak 40.9 from 39.6 in May, according to the findings issued.

“Elevated interest rates, higher input costs and volatility from tariffs have put downward pressure on farmland prices. On average, bankers expect one in four farmers in their area to experience negative 2025 income,” said Goss. 

The RMI overview also offered insight into farm equipment sales and banking, and reported that  farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 22.7 from 23.9 in May.

“This is the 22nd straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions, low farm commodity prices and market volatility from tariffs are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss. 

Covering the banking perspective, the report notes that June loan volume index declined to 73.1 from 75.0 in May and also found: the checking deposit index fell to 40.4 from May’s 45.8; the index for certificates of deposits (CDs) and other savings instruments dropped to 50.2 from 60.4 in May; and further reported that the Federal Reserve interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 31 straight months.

According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA) cited in Creighton’s Mainstreet Index overview, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $4.5 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025 for a decline of 18.5%. For the first month of 2025, Mexico was the top destination for regional ag exports, accounting for 55.1% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.

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